The Plan to Privatize Weather Forecasts

“What you do not want is a paywall system of weather where only paying customers can find out if they’re about to drive into a tornado.”

That’s a quote from comedian John Oliver, who in 2020 presented a segment on his popular Max show, Last Week Tonight about AccuWeather’s attempts to take over weather forecasting services from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. AccuWeather is a private, for-profit company that sells weather forecasts to corporations. NOAA is a government agency that studies weather, climate and environmental conditions, and provides weather data and forecasts for free.

Oliver also unearthed a 2018 interview with AccuWeather’s Founder and Executive Chairman Joel Myers, describing what he felt was a success story for privatized-weather forecasting, but which actually stands as a cautionary tale:

“Union Pacific: We told them that a tornado was heading to a spot. Two trains stopped two miles apart, they watched the tornado go between. Then unfortunately it went into a town that didn’t have our service and a couple dozen people were killed. But the railroad did not lose anything,” Myers said.

Now, former members of the first Trump administration are proposing putting the privatization of NOAA’s weather data and forecasts into law should the former President be re-elected this November. They’re also suggesting that AccuWeather should take over many of NOAA’s functions. If this happens, Americans may have to start paying for the daily weather reports we rely on to live our lives safely.

This plan is just one proposal contained in Project 2025, an effort led by former Director of the White House Presidential Personnel office and founder of The Right Stuff dating app John McEntee, to prepare for an entire remake of the federal government should Trump achieve another term. Project 2025 also contains plans to destroy the National Monument system, and replace federal employees with Trump loyalists, among many other radical measures.

Amid negative press around Project 2025—many of its policies are proving controversial even with Republican voters—Trump is attempting to distance himself from it. But CNN reports that the staff of Project 2025 includes at least 140 members of his administration, including six of his cabinet members and four of his appointed ambassadors.

But enough about politics, let’s get into the reason you’re here: weather forecasts. In 1807, President Thomas Jefferson established the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey for the purpose of creating nautical charts so commercial shipping traffic could safely navigate into and out of the country’s ports. In 1849, the  Smithsonian Institution started collecting weather observations and distributing forecasts “for the benefit of commerce,” in an effort that would eventually morph into the National Weather Service (NWS).

In 1871, the U.S. Commission of Fish and Fisheries was created to protect an important source of the nation’s food. These were the first scientific agencies ever established by the federal government, and in 1970, they were combined to form the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or NOAA.

NOAA’s weather stations, satellites, aircraft, and meteorologists collect weather data and provide weather forecasts. You probably looked at one of those when you decided what to wear today. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center provides forecasts and historic data for time periods beyond seven days. If you’re planning a summer vacation, you’re probably using that information to decide what to pack and where to go. In the event of a hurricane, tornado, blizzard, or similar, NOAA’s severe weather alerts appear on the radio and television, or on your phone.

We outdoor enthusiasts are more reliant on NOAA’s weather data and forecasts than most. Every day we check weather data that the NWS collects and analyzes. If you ski, you’re using NOAA information to learn about snow conditions, and potential avalanche hazards. NWS forecasts wildfire weather, and issues the watches, warnings, and advisories campers and hikers use to plan their outings. If you surf or swim in the ocean, you rely on NWS’s Surf Zone Forecasts to learn about riptides and currents. If you’re into 4x4s, you use NWS flash flood warnings to plan safe routes.

NOAA also provides much of the raw data that private, for-profit forecasters like AccuWeather use to advise their corporate clients and subscribers. In some cases, combining NWS forecasts and data with information from private satellites and weather forecasts can enable private weather forecasters to provide higher resolution looks at smaller areas, like sports stadiums, or those narrow rail lines that AccuWeather’s Myers mentions above. But the public rarely has access to that private information.

“The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) should be dismantled and many of its functions eliminated,” reads the introduction to Project 2025’s chapter on proposals for the Department of Commerce (of which NOAA is an agency). It goes on to simply say “Break up NOAA” as the first sentence in the section covering that agency.

Project 2025 calls NOAA and the National Weather Service “one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry,” and “harmful to future U.S. prosperity.”

The chapter is written by Thomas F. Gilman, the former Chrysler executive who Trump installed as chief financial officer and assistant secretary for administration at the Department of Commerce in 2019.

Gilman then breaks down the functions of NOAA that he thinks a future Trump administration should privatize or eliminate.

1. “Focus the NWS on Commercial Operations.”

Gilman proposes that the National Weather Service (which is part of NOAA) should focus on selling its data to private companies only, rather than making it available for free to everyone. He then suggests that those private companies—he only mentions AccuWeather by name—should be the sole source of weather forecasts for the public, a service for which they charge.

2. “Review the Work of the National Hurricane Center and the National Environmental Satellite Service.”

Gilman wants data around hurricanes and tropical storms to be distributed “without adjustments intended to support any one side in the climate debate.”

3. “Transfer National Ocean Service Survey Functions to the U.S. Coast Guard and the U.S. Geological Survey.”

The National Ocean Service may not generate many headlines, but the agency does work that impacts millions of Americans. It provides “science-based environmental services” to the 168 million Americans who live along the country’s coastlines and the innumerable commercial interests who operate there, too.

Those services include everything from mapping water levels, tides, and currents to coordinating emergency responses to disasters to managing river estuaries. It creates the charts mariners use to navigate coastal waters, manages our nation’s 15 National Marine Sanctuaries, and helps forecast evolving coastal conditions that can impact infrastructure, homes and businesses.

Its annual budget is only about $570 million (something the Federal Times says is “not enough…costing the U.S. billions of dollars). While Gilman proposes transferring these functions to the Coast Guard or USGS, Project 2025 contains no suggestions of increased budget for either of those entities.

4. “Downsize the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research.”

The Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research works to provide the scientific research that supports NOAA’s understanding of tornadoes, hurricanes, climate change, the ozone layer, ecosystem health, and other vital areas. Gilman calls it, “The source of much of NOAA’s climate alarmism,” and proposes reducing budgets and staffing, but provides no specifics on how that would look.

5. “Break Up the Office of Marine and Aviation Operations and Reassign its Assets to Other Agencies During this Process.”

You know those brave aviators who risk their lives flying into hurricanes to collect data that then informs forecasts, saving lives and protecting property? Gilman wants to get rid of them.

6. “Ensure Appointees Agree with Administration Aims.”

Project 2025 proposes replacing appointed roles at NOAA and the National Weather Service with Trump loyalists. “Particular attention must be paid to appointments in this area,” Gilman writes.

Should these policies be enacted, they would reduce the public’s access to potentially life-saving weather forecasts; make residential, commercial, and public infrastructure and activities more susceptible to damage from extreme weather; reduce our ability to understand and accurately forecast severe weather like tornadoes and hurricanes; and eliminate our government’s ability to understand or respond to climate change.

None of that is a coincidence. As John Oliver highlighted four years ago, it’s the culmination of a decades-long effort by private corporations to turn a public resource into a profit center. Should Trump return to the White House, Project 2025 says he should give the keys to the nation’s weather services to AccuWeather.

If McEntee, Gilman, and the other former Trump staffers who wrote Project 2025 get their way, you may have to pony up cash to find out if a tornado is headed toward your home or business. There will also be no way to know if that forecast you’re paying for was put together by scientists at all.